A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
